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When Giants Dance–Intelligence Perspective on the Current Israeli/Palestinian Conflict

When Giants Dance

By Intelligence Operative Jay Holmes* and Azad

Image by Edi Israel, wikimedia commons

Today, news watchers in the West are seeing reports about the Israeli bombing of Gaza. Some are wondering if this week’s events in Israel and Gaza are the start World War Three.

My best guess is that this conflict will not escalate to that point, but if you happen to live in Gaza, it might feel like World War Three this week. If you happen to live in southern Israel, where the rockets fall every week, it might feel like that all the time.

Before throwing one more opinion into what will certainly not be the bloodiest war, but likely the most mediated war, let’s take a moment to consider the children on both sides of the border. These children have no control over the relations between Gaza and Israel, but the one constant tragedy in Gaza and southern Israel is that the children always suffer.

Of course, when I use the term “mediated” I am referring to the fact that the world’s “media” will deliver fantastic volumes of information about the current phase of the Palestinian/Israeli conflict. It is sad how little of that information will be accurate or fairly presented. However, all of that information will likely generate revenue for the media industry.

To attempt to understand the current events in Gaza, we can help ourselves by considering a few of the less obvious facts. We in the West think of Hamas as being in control of Gaza. Hamas likes to think that, as well, but it is not altogether accurate. Hamas appears to be one more run-of-the-mill Islamic terror group marching happily in step with all the other Islamic terror groups. But terrorists wreak havoc. This leaves them unskilled at performing anything like government. As a result, Hamas cannot control what goes on in Gaza.

Hamas is not even able to march happily in step with itself, which seriously impairs its ability to influence other Islamic terrorists in the area. The chaotic conditions in Gaza allowed competing terror groups to vacation there, and some of those vacationers decided to stay. Those groups do not obey Hamas. They obey whoever provides them with cash, weapons, hash, hookers, etc. Usually Syria and Iran would be that somebody, but Saudi Arabia and Gulf states are sometimes soft touches for cute young terror groups.

We in the West are not supposed to believe such dastardly things about our Saudi “friends.” However, the New American Reality Dictionary defines “friends” as, “Anyone who ships oil to the US.”

Many Americans find that disgusting. Many of those same Americans drive gasoline-consuming cars every day while they are finding that disgusting. Yes. Even my own car runs on gasoline, not on peaceful thoughts or good will.

Regardless of where the cash and weapons come from, we know where many of them end up—on Israeli roof tops. The current Israeli leader is Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israelis call him something else. I call him Beny Buddy. He calls me nothing at all. He never even calls me. I am not his friend. I’m not sure Beny does the friendship thing much. Living in that region might do that to a man.

In any event, his name hardly matters since this conflict predates him. Netanyahu and Likud, his political party, cannot remain in power if hundreds of rockets and mortar rounds from Gaza continue to land in Israel every month. From the Israeli perspective, the motives for the looming Israeli operations in Gaza are simple. The Israeli people don’t like rockets and bombs falling on their heads, and the current Israeli leadership does not like losing elections. Also, with Iran increasing the potency and quality of its missiles, the Israeli intelligence services might be feeling less patient than usual about the Gaza launch base.

The Hamas motives are a little trickier to define. It takes a bit of guesswork, and that is because they are still guessing about it themselves. As long as Gaza remains in a state of chaos without any worthwhile government, and as long as start up terror groups are cutting their teeth in “Palestine,” anything can happen. And now it has.

While the Israelis love driving American tanks, they don’t always love American methods. Israel is not living on a giant Chinese credit card like the Pentagon is. If Israel calls up reservists, which it has, and it moves armor toward Gaza, it is NOT because Israelis think it is fun to waste fuel they cannot produce and can barely afford. Those tanks will end up in Gaza.

Hamas fully realizes this, and they are currently doing their best impersonation of innocent victims. They are not great actors, but they play for an easy audience—the Western media and Islamic-financed propaganda outlets. Hamas wants to generate “international outrage” as quickly as it can in order to give Israel as little time as possible to drive around Gaza blowing up rocket supplies with those cool tanks.

The Israeli lobbyists and propaganda outlets will seek the opposite. But Israelis are currently out of fad with a majority of Western voters so they will be looking rather frustrated if you see them prowling the halls of the capitol or sitting in for some attack journalism by CNN interviewers.

I can just imagine a call from Iran to Hamas . . . “Okay. We’re sending more rockets. Rockets are supposed to blow up on those Jews, NOT in Gaza. Rockets don’t grow on trees, you know. If you can’t learn to take care of the rockets we give you, maybe we need to give them to someone else.”

One can find absurd humor in all of this as long as one does not live in or have relatives living in the region. Then the humor begins to pale. The children of Israel and Gaza have little to laugh at this week. They won’t have much next week, either.

I am happy that today that I can include the opinions of a civilian working in Egypt this week. He is neither Palestinian nor Jewish; he is Lebanese. He is a respected and highly educated member of the business community. English is not his first language, nor his second or third. Piper and I prefer to leave his work unedited to avoid accidentally changing the meaning. I hope that he can shed some light on the current violence in the Gaza area.

Between his prayers for his family’s safety, our friend, Azad, sent the following statement.

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The never-ending conflict

Earlier this week, Israeli defense forces (IDF) launched operation Amud Anan (operation pillar of cloud) with the killing of Ahmed Jabari, chief of the Gaza military wing of Hamas. The Israeli government stated that the purpose behind this operation is to cut short the flow of missile attacks launched from the Gaza strip and to deteriorate the capabilities of militant organizations.

The escalation of the clashes is within the frame of the long-term Israeli Palestinian conflict, but different interpretations are emerging as the conflict parallels with the Middle Eastern turmoil. Until further reasons come into view, three different readings are on the table:

The Israeli election is around the corner and to ensure his win for another term Benjamin Netanyahu wants to settle Hamas’ issue once and for all. After the start of the Israeli operation, Palestinian militants further intensified their rocket attacks on Israel. Mortars hit Tel Aviv for the first time since 1991 and Jerusalem since 1970 subsequently. Halting these mortars will definitely guarantee the centre right Likud party for another term.

On the Palestinian side, Mahmoud Abbas is trying to harness Hamas in an effort to unite the Palestinian front once again after the split of Hamas from the Palestinian authority and bestowing an Islamic government in 2006, and the consequent ousting of Fatah. After the unification the Palestinian authority intended to petition for a UN vote to become a full member state in the worldwide organization, which the US and Israeli government condemned and stated that it will not serve the peaceful progress between the counterparts; hence, a conflict to defer the voting until further notice.

On another hand, the European Union, United States of America, and several western countries back Israel and express an explicit support for Israel’s right to defend its citizens; while Russia, Iran, and several Arabic countries being behind Hamas condemn the Israeli attack. This dichotomy instigates a nostalgic of the cold war between the East and the West. The post-soviet state coming into picture again should never be underestimated, especially since a Chinese and Russian coalition could change the equation on many levels.

Whether the conflict is for political gains, UN recognition, or a new divergence of power in the region the death toll rises from both sides while the United Nations Security Council remains at a dead end after holding an emergency session on the situation.

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Our profound thanks to Azad for his keen observations. Many prayers for his family, and for all of the families and children who are left scrambling for cover when the Giants dance.

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*‘Jay Holmes’, is an intelligence veteran of the Cold War and remains an anonymous member of the intelligence community. His writing partner, Piper Bayard, is the public face of their partnership.

Piper Bayard and Jay Holmes blog at Bayard & Holmes. You may contact them in blog comments, on Twitter at@piperbayard, on Facebook at Piper Bayard, or by email at piperbayard@yahoo.com.

© 2012 Jay Holmes. All content on this page is protected by copyright. If you would like to use any part of this, please contact us at the above links to request permission.


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